NEW DELHI: Gold prices are poised to extend their rally next week, supported by persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, escalating tariff disputes, and steady central bank purchases, analysts said.
Investors will closely track key global economic data releases, including UK and EU GDP, the US Core PPI, and Core CPI. Speeches by US Federal Reserve officials will also be watched for clues on gold’s near-term trajectory.
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP – Research (Non-Agri Commodities & Currencies) at Angel One, noted that gold has been hitting record highs in both international and domestic markets.
“From a low of ₹98,079 per 10 grams on July 28 to ₹1,02,250 on August 8, gold has continued to add to investor wealth. Globally, prices surged from USD 3,268 per ounce on July 30 to USD 3,534.10 per ounce. The rally seems unstoppable,” Mallya said.
On the MCX, October gold futures climbed ₹1,763, or 1.77%, last week. Mallya attributed the surge partly to rising tariff tensions, warning that further escalation could push global prices towards USD 3,800 per ounce and MCX futures towards ₹1,10,000 per 10 grams within three months.
He cited the US’s move to impose higher tariffs on goods from multiple countries, including doubling tariffs on India to 50% after its oil imports from Russia, as a key driver of safe-haven demand.
Jateen Trivedi, VP – Research Analyst (Commodity & Currency) at LKP Securities, said gold’s near-term bias remains positive if prices hold above ₹99,000 per 10 grams.
“While a strong dollar limited gains last week, a weaker rupee cushioned domestic prices. We expect volatility to persist, with a broad range of USD 3,360–3,425 on Comex and ₹98,500–1,03,000 on MCX,” Trivedi said.
NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity & CRM at Ventura Securities, said speculation about a US Fed rate cut intensified after disappointing economic data last week. On Friday, December Comex gold futures hit an all-time high of USD 3,534.10 before settling at USD 3,491.30.
“With US growth and inflation slowing, gold remains at record levels. Central bank buying, trade wars, geopolitical risks, and rising ETF holdings are all supportive. A Fed rate cut could be the catalyst for the next record-breaking surge,” Ramaswamy said.
He also pointed to fresh drivers, including new US tariffs on one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars, supply concerns, and questions over the Fed’s independence.
Analysts believe that unless macroeconomic conditions shift sharply, the combination of geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, currency volatility, and central bank demand will keep gold prices on an upward path in the medium term.
