NEW DELHI: Gold prices are projected to reach USD 3,600 per ounce in international markets by the end of December, driven by global economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and strong investment demand, according to Ventura Securities.
In its latest market outlook, Ventura Securities expects Comex gold futures to hit USD 3,600 per ounce by year-end, following an all-time high of USD 3,534.10 recorded on August 7. On the domestic front, October gold futures surged to a record Rs 1,02,250 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange on August 8.
“Gold continues to show upside potential amid heightened volatility, supported by slowing US growth, persistent pressure on the US dollar, trade frictions, and elevated geopolitical risks,” the brokerage noted.
Global demand trends remain strong. In Q2 2025, gold demand rose 3% year-on-year to 1,249 tonnes, valued at USD 132 billion—a 45% increase in value terms. Investment inflows through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been particularly robust, with global gold ETF holdings up 16% to 3,616 tonnes as of June 30, while assets under management surged 64% year-on-year to USD 383 billion.
India mirrors this global trend. Domestic gold ETFs saw a 42% rise in holdings to 66.68 tonnes for the year ending June 30, with assets under management nearly doubling to Rs 64,777 crore. Investor accounts in gold ETFs rose 41% to 76.54 lakh, reflecting a 317% increase over the past four years. Ventura highlighted a shift in investor behavior, with younger generations increasingly opting for digital gold investment avenues such as ETFs, fractional ownership, and online gold platforms.
Physical jewellery demand remains steady, though hybrid investment strategies combining offline and online channels are gaining popularity.
“Over the past two decades, gold has delivered positive annual returns in 14 out of 20 years, reinforcing its role as a reliable store of value and an inflation hedge,” Ventura noted. “Recent performance underscores its resilience, with average annual returns of 23% over the last three years, compared to 11% for the Nifty 50 index.”
The brokerage added that central banks remain consistent gold buyers. With the Reserve Bank of India discontinuing fresh Sovereign Gold Bond issuances from February 2024, analysts expect ETFs and other digital investment instruments to capture a larger share of the market.
NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities at Ventura, said, “With ongoing inflationary pressures, a weakening US dollar, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold prices have sustained upside potential through the remainder of 2025. Comex gold could test the USD 3,600 mark by year-end, supported by strong ETF inflows, steady central bank buying, and robust retail participation in India’s gold investment market.”
