China’s Economic Growth Slows to 4.8% Amid Trade Tensions and Weak Demand
Hong Kong: China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in a year during the July–September quarter, expanding 4.8 per cent annually, as trade frictions with the United States and subdued domestic demand weighed on activity.
According to official data released Monday, the third-quarter growth marked a decline from 5.2 per cent in the previous quarter and was the weakest since the same period in 2024. For the first nine months of 2025, the world’s second-largest economy posted a 5.2 per cent annual growth rate.
Despite higher tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, Chinese exports have held up relatively well, with businesses redirecting shipments to alternative global markets. However, tensions between Beijing and Washington remain high, and it is uncertain whether Trump and President Xi Jinping will meet at the upcoming regional summit later this month.
Xi and other top Communist Party leaders began one of China’s key annual political gatherings on Monday to set the country’s economic and social policy goals for the next five years.
Growth slowed last quarter as authorities cracked down on intense price wars — particularly in the auto sector — that stemmed from industrial overcapacity. The economy also continues to grapple with a prolonged property slump, which has dampened consumption and overall demand.
Ratings agency S&P predicts nationwide new home sales will fall by 8 per cent in 2025 and decline a further 6 to 7 per cent in 2026. The World Bank expects China’s full-year growth to reach 4.8 per cent, while the government’s official target remains around 5 per cent.
Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank, said the country’s stronger performance in the first half of the year provided “some buffer” to achieve that goal.
However, consumer spending during the eight-day Golden Week holiday in October was “mildly disappointing,” according to Morningstar analysts, reflecting persistent weakness in confidence and demand.
“There’s still room for the government to do more,” Song noted, adding that additional steps to boost consumption and support the property market may be needed as the effects of earlier measures fade.
Economists also anticipate that China’s central bank could cut interest rates before year-end to spur spending and investment.
